AFLW · ROUND 8 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 17
ADE to win, 77% chance
PA 23%77% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 2.0 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | - |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 45% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | - |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 23% | 9% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 20% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 10.1 | 7.7 to 12.6 | 4.8 to 15.5 | 100% | 99% | 96% | 91% | 84% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 65% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 76% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 26% | 11% | 6% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 42% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |