AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Geelong Cats
Fri 2 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 28
GEE to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 6.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.2 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 92% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Geelong Cats
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 27.1 | 23.2 to 31.0 | 17.6 to 36.7 | 98% | 91% | 68% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 23.7 | 20.1 to 27.4 | 14.7 to 32.8 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.1 | 14.5 to 32.5 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.9 to 25.9 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 8.5 | 6.0 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |