AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Geelong Cats
Fri 2 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 28
GEE to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 6.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 82 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 57 | 44 to 69 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Dana East | INT | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Geelong Cats
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 98 | 83 to 114 | 62 to 135 | 90% | 80% | 64% | 46% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 97 | 82 to 113 | 60 to 134 | 89% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 91 | 76 to 106 | 55 to 127 | 83% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 17% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 49 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 85 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |