AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Geelong Cats
Fri 2 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 28
GEE to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 6.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 42% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.0 | 1.4 to 2.5 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 100% | 64% | 30% | 15% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.9 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 34% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 64% | 24% | 11% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 29% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |