AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Geelong Cats
Fri 2 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 28
GEE to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 6.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 44% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 76% | 59% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 7.5 | 5.4 to 9.6 | 2.9 to 12.1 | 97% | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 70% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | - |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |