AFLW · ROUND 8 · MARS STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 34
WB to win, 91% chance
WB 91%9% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 25.3 | 21.6 to 29.1 | 16.0 to 34.6 | 96% | 84% | 55% | 23% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 21.2 | 17.8 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.9 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 84% | 50% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.0 | 63% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 15.0 | 11.9 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Louise Stephenson | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 68% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Rene Caris | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 5.8 | 3.8 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 5.1 | 3.1 to 7.1 | 0.2 to 10.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |