AFLW · ROUND 8 · MARS STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 34
WB to win, 91% chance
WB 91%9% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 94 | 78 to 109 | 57 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 36% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 75 | 62 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 64 | 51 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 21 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Louise Stephenson | INT | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 81 | 67 to 95 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 60 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |