AFLW · ROUND 8 · MARS STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 34
WB to win, 91% chance
WB 91%9% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma McDonald | FF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Louise Stephenson | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 13% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 13% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |