AFLW · ROUND 9 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v GWS GIANTS
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 42
GEE to win, 95% chance
GEE 95%5% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 21.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 27.8 | 23.9 to 31.7 | 18.2 to 37.5 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 39% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 24.5 | 20.8 to 28.2 | 15.4 to 33.7 | 96% | 82% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 24.1 | 20.5 to 27.8 | 15.1 to 33.2 | 96% | 80% | 46% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 20.5 | 17.1 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.4 to 26.7 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
GWS GIANTS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 26.1 | 22.3 to 29.9 | 16.7 to 35.5 | 97% | 88% | 62% | 27% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 92% | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 81% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Grace Kos | R | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Clark | WR | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |