AFLW · ROUND 9 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v GWS GIANTS
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 42
GEE to win, 95% chance
GEE 95%5% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 21.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 7.7 | 5.6 to 9.8 | 3.0 to 12.4 | 97% | 91% | 84% | 72% | 63% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 88% | 75% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 42% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | - |
| Georgia Clark | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 49% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 44% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |