AFLW · ROUND 9 · GREAT BARRIER REEF ARENA
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 8:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 32
MEL to win, 90% chance
GCS 10%90% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 53.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 27.7 | 23.8 to 31.6 | 18.0 to 37.3 | 98% | 92% | 71% | 38% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 22.9 | 19.3 to 26.5 | 14.0 to 31.8 | 94% | 73% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georja Davies | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 6.1 | 3.9 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 5.6 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 4.8 | 2.8 to 6.7 | 0.0 to 9.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 27.8 | 23.9 to 31.7 | 18.2 to 37.5 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 39% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.9 | 14.3 to 32.2 | 95% | 76% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 22.9 | 19.3 to 26.5 | 14.0 to 31.8 | 94% | 73% | 38% | 12% | 2% | - |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 84% | 50% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |