AFLW · ROUND 9 · GREAT BARRIER REEF ARENA
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 8:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 32
MEL to win, 90% chance
GCS 10%90% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 53.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 101 | 85 to 116 | 63 to 138 | 92% | 82% | 68% | 50% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 69% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 70 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 84 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georja Davies | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 59 |
| Paige Price | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 57 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 99 | 84 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 65% | 47% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 57 to 129 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 35% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Kate Hore | C | 92 | 77 to 107 | 56 to 128 | 84% | 71% | 52% | 33% | 20% | - |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 35% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 59 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |