AFLW · ROUND 9 · GREAT BARRIER REEF ARENA
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 8:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 32
MEL to win, 90% chance
GCS 10%90% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 53.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havana Harris | FPR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 57% | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georja Davies | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Paige Price | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.9 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 34% | 15% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Kate Hore | C | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 1% | - |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 82% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 21% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |