AFLW · ROUND 9 · GREAT BARRIER REEF ARENA
Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 8:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
MEL by 32
MEL to win, 90% chance
GCS 10%90% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 53.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.3 to 11.0 | 92% | 84% | 73% | 64% | 50% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 77% | 61% | 48% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 35% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 55% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Paige Price | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | - |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Georja Davies | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | - |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 91% | 79% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | - |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |