AFLW · ROUND 9 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 3
BRI to win, 55% chance
HAW 45%55% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 28.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.4 | 19.8 to 27.0 | 14.4 to 32.4 | 95% | 76% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.3 | 79% | 42% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.1 | 10.6 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 12.8 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Laura Stone | INT | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.7 | 5.3 to 10.0 | 1.9 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Brisbane Lions
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 25.0 | 21.3 to 28.8 | 15.8 to 34.3 | 96% | 84% | 54% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 13.1 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.9 | 87% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.5 to 23.8 | 62% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |