AFLW · ROUND 9 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 3
BRI to win, 55% chance
HAW 45%55% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 28.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 89 | 74 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 87 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 72 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 33 | 22 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
Brisbane Lions
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 95 | 80 to 110 | 59 to 132 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 104 | 51% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 48 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Evie Long | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |