AFLW · ROUND 9 · KENNEDY COMMUNITY CENTRE
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 3
BRI to win, 55% chance
HAW 45%55% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 28.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 29% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 28% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |