AFLW · ROUND 9 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 28
NM to win, 87% chance
NM 87%13% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 29.7 | 25.7 to 33.7 | 19.8 to 39.7 | 99% | 96% | 81% | 51% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 38.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 28.7 | 24.7 to 32.7 | 18.9 to 38.5 | 99% | 94% | 76% | 43% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.0 | 13.6 to 31.3 | 93% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 84% | 50% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 65% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emma King | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Fremantle
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 23.5 | 19.9 to 27.2 | 14.5 to 32.5 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 22.7 | 19.1 to 26.3 | 13.9 to 31.6 | 94% | 72% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.9 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 5.2 | 3.2 to 7.2 | 0.2 to 10.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 4.8 | 2.8 to 6.7 | 0.0 to 9.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |