AFLW · ROUND 9 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 28
NM to win, 87% chance
NM 87%13% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 111 | 95 to 127 | 72 to 149 | 97% | 91% | 81% | 68% | 50% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 109 | 93 to 125 | 71 to 148 | 96% | 90% | 80% | 65% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 88 | 73 to 103 | 52 to 123 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 72 | 59 to 86 | 39 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 50 | 38 to 63 | 21 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emma King | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Fremantle
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 107 | 91 to 123 | 69 to 145 | 95% | 88% | 78% | 62% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 94 | 78 to 108 | 57 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 36% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 84 | 70 to 99 | 49 to 119 | 75% | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 69% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 56 | 44 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 80 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 46 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24 |