AFLW · ROUND 9 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 28
NM to win, 87% chance
NM 87%13% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 29% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 24% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 29% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tess Craven | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 40% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Indiana West | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |