AFLW · ROUND 9 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 28
NM to win, 87% chance
NM 87%13% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 28
HIT Actual margin 28 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.2 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 61% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 49% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 60% | 48% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 59% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 20% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | - |
Fremantle
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.8 | 4.3 to 14.7 | 100% | 97% | 94% | 86% | 78% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.6 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 44% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | - |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 18% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |