AFLW · ROUND 9 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 85% chance
RIC 15%85% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 7.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 22.0 | 18.5 to 25.5 | 13.3 to 30.7 | 92% | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 26.7 | 22.8 to 30.5 | 17.2 to 36.2 | 98% | 90% | 65% | 31% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.8 | 12.7 to 30.0 | 90% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.8 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 11.1 to 27.7 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 57% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.5 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 5.7 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |