AFLW · ROUND 9 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 85% chance
RIC 15%85% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 7.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 69 | 56 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Dana East | INT | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 87 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 53 | 41 to 65 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 53 | 41 to 65 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 117 | 100 to 133 | 77 to 156 | 98% | 94% | 86% | 76% | 60% | outside our 90% range: 169 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 81 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 108 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 60 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |