AFLW · ROUND 9 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 85% chance
RIC 15%85% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 7.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 46% | 31% | 17% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.1 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 40% | 23% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |