AFLW · ROUND 9 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 25
ADE to win, 85% chance
RIC 15%85% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 7.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 13% | - |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | - |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 31% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 10.0 | 7.6 to 12.4 | 4.7 to 15.4 | 100% | 99% | 96% | 91% | 84% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 47% | 31% | 14% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 52% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 7% | - |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 42% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - |