AFLW · ROUND 9 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v Collingwood
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 61% chance
STK 39%61% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 22.9 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 82% | 46% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.5 | 10.2 to 26.4 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 17.5 | 14.2 to 20.7 | 9.5 to 25.4 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.5 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 48% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Rene Caris | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 11.2 to 27.8 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.2 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |