AFLW · ROUND 9 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v Collingwood
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 61% chance
STK 39%61% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 83 | 69 to 98 | 48 to 118 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 110 | 61% | 42% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 97 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 39 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5 |
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 69% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Tarni White | WL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 65 | 52 to 78 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 35% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 61 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |