AFLW · ROUND 9 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v Collingwood
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 61% chance
STK 39%61% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 29% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 62% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |