AFLW · ROUND 9 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v Collingwood
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 61% chance
STK 39%61% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni White | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.3 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 15% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |