AFLW · ROUND 9 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v Collingwood
Sat 10 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
COL by 7
COL to win, 61% chance
STK 39%61% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 8.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 86% | 74% | 64% | 52% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 16% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 86% | 74% | 64% | 50% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 63% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | - |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 61% | 47% | 31% | 15% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 20% | 8% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | - |