AFLW · ROUND 9 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 63% chance
SYD 37%63% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 19.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.0 | 13.6 to 31.3 | 93% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 28.9 | 88% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.7 to 28.6 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.5 to 26.9 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 22.8 | 19.2 to 26.4 | 14.0 to 31.7 | 94% | 73% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 22.2 | 18.7 to 25.8 | 13.5 to 31.0 | 93% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.2 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 92% | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.1 | 12.9 to 30.2 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.4 to 26.7 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.3 to 26.5 | 77% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 15.7 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 59% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |