AFLW · ROUND 9 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 63% chance
SYD 37%63% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 19.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 86 | 72 to 101 | 51 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 81 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Montana Ham | R | 79 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 77 | 63 to 91 | 44 to 111 | 62% | 44% | 30% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | - |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 68 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 64 | 51 to 77 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 82 | 68 to 96 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 82 | 68 to 96 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 81 | 67 to 95 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 68 | 55 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 50 | 38 to 63 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 76 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |