AFLW · ROUND 9 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Sun 11 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 63% chance
SYD 37%63% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 19.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 21% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 54% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 20% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |