AFLW · ROUND 9 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Fri 9 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 25
WB to win, 85% chance
WB 85%15% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 43
HIT Actual margin 43 · 17.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 24.9 | 21.2 to 28.7 | 15.7 to 34.1 | 96% | 83% | 53% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.4 to 29.6 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.7 | 11.1 to 27.6 | 81% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 16.3 | 13.1 to 19.4 | 8.6 to 24.0 | 63% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.5 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 12.8 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Louise Stephenson | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Essendon
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 27.2 | 23.3 to 31.0 | 17.6 to 36.7 | 98% | 91% | 68% | 35% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.5 to 28.3 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 59% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |