AFLW · ROUND 9 · MISSION WHITTEN OVAL
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Fri 9 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 25
WB to win, 85% chance
WB 85%15% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 43
HIT Actual margin 43 · 17.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 1.4 | 0.9 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 85% | 39% | 15% | 8% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 73% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 56% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 39% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Louise Stephenson | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |