AFL · OPENING ROUND · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 4
WB to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 1.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 82% | 43% | 11% | 39.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 31.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 25.8 | - | - | 99% | 89% | 57% | 18% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 25.1 | - | - | 98% | 86% | 51% | 15% | 2% | 19.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | FPL | 22.8 | - | - | 95% | 73% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 30.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 22.0 | - | - | 93% | 67% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 20.3 | - | - | 87% | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | WL | 19.4 | - | - | 82% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 19.2 | - | - | 82% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 17.3 | - | - | 69% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Cam Rayner | INT | 16.1 | - | - | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 16.1 | - | - | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 13.7 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Harris Andrews | CHB | 13.6 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.8 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 11.6 | - | - | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.4 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.8 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 10.8 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Logan Morris | FF | 10.3 | - | - | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 9.7 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 9.7 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 25.0 | - | - | 98% | 86% | 50% | 14% | 2% | 28.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 24.0 | - | - | 97% | 80% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 30.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 23.6 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 38% | 9% | 1% | 19.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 21.6 | - | - | 92% | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 30.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 20.5 | - | - | 88% | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 19.3 | - | - | 82% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 17.5 | - | - | 70% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFR | 17.4 | - | - | 69% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 16.9 | - | - | 66% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 13.8 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 12.7 | - | - | 31% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 11.7 | - | - | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 11.6 | - | - | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 11.2 | - | - | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 11.2 | - | - | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.0 | - | - | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 10.5 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 10.3 | - | - | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 9.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 9.2 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 8.6 | - | - | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |