AFL · OPENING ROUND · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 4
WB to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 1.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 101 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 100 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 73 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 99 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 67% | 48% | 30% | 142 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 117 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 88 | - | - | 81% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | 82 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 94 |
| Will Ashcroft | FPL | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 109 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | WL | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 77 |
| Cam Rayner | INT | 74 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 49 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 68 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 65 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 73 |
| Harris Andrews | CHB | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 64 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 68 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 109 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 95 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 54 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 84 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 52 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 53 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 27 |
| Logan Morris | FF | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 78 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 64 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim English | RK | 104 | - | - | 95% | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 108 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 102 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 72% | 54% | 35% | 92 |
| Ed Richards | R | 100 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 133 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 96 | - | - | 89% | 77% | 60% | 42% | 25% | 115 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 88 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 89 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 63 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 86 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 53 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 85 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 103 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFR | 75 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 53 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 73 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 62 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 70 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 48 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 69 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 38 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 94 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 64 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 64 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 76 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 61 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 48 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 55 | - | - | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 31 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 32 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 54 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 38 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 20 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 40 |