AFL · OPENING ROUND · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 4
WB to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 1.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 91% | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Cam Rayner | INT | 1.4 | - | - | 71% | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 1.4 | - | - | 69% | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 1.3 | - | - | 64% | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Logan Morris | FF | 1.1 | - | - | 57% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.8 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 0.7 | - | - | 37% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 0.7 | - | - | 34% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 0.7 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 0.5 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | FPL | 0.4 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 0.3 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 78% | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 1.2 | - | - | 59% | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 1.1 | - | - | 57% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.0 | - | - | 48% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 0.8 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 0.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.5 | - | - | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 0.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.5 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.5 | - | - | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 0.4 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 0.3 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |