AFL · OPENING ROUND · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 4
WB to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 1.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 / 39.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 8.0 | 5.3 / 0.0 | 97 / 117 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.1 / 31.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 6.6 / 11.0 | 3.0 / 4.0 | 99 / 142 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 25.8 / 4.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 6.6 / 1.0 | 101 / 20 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 25.1 / 19.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 7.5 / 6.0 | 100 / 73 |
| Will Ashcroft | FPL | 22.8 / 30.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 4.0 | 4.2 / 5.0 | 83 / 109 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 22.0 / 23.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 6.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 88 / 82 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 20.3 / 22.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 8.0 | 4.5 / 2.0 | 84 / 94 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | WL | 19.4 / 21.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 7.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 | 76 / 77 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 19.2 / 18.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 4.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 65 / 68 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 17.3 / 18.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 72 / 68 |
| Cam Rayner | INT | 16.1 / 16.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 74 / 49 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 16.1 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 5.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 68 / 73 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 13.7 / 24.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 9.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 61 / 95 |
| Harris Andrews | CHB | 13.6 / 18.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.7 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 66 / 64 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.8 / 15.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 6.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 59 / 84 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 11.6 / 6.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 4.8 / 3.0 | 60 / 54 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.4 / 11.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 70 / 65 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.8 / 15.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 4.4 / 7.0 | 3.0 / 5.0 | 63 / 109 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 10.8 / 11.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 4.6 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 0.0 | 58 / 52 |
| Logan Morris | FF | 10.3 / 14.0 | 1.1 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 51 / 78 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 9.7 / 7.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 0.0 | 53 / 27 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 9.7 / 10.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 4.0 | 4.6 / 6.0 | 49 / 64 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 25.0 / 28.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 4.0 | 6.9 / 2.0 | 95 / 88 |
| Ed Richards | R | 24.0 / 30.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 8.0 | 6.1 / 4.0 | 100 / 133 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 23.6 / 19.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 | 4.3 / 4.0 | 6.9 / 5.0 | 102 / 92 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 21.6 / 30.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 4.0 | 6.1 / 6.0 | 96 / 115 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 20.5 / 20.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 4.7 / 1.0 | 86 / 53 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 19.3 / 25.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 6.1 / 7.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 85 / 103 |
| Tim English | RK | 17.5 / 16.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 5.5 / 5.0 | 4.8 / 1.0 | 104 / 108 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFR | 17.4 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 4.7 / 3.0 | 3.7 / 0.0 | 75 / 53 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 16.9 / 9.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 69 / 38 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 14.9 / 11.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 70 / 48 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 13.8 / 27.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 4.5 / 3.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 65 / 94 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 12.7 / 10.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 6.1 / 4.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 89 / 63 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 11.7 / 16.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 5.0 / 3.0 | 64 / 64 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 11.6 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 4.0 | 3.4 / 0.0 | 62 / 48 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 11.2 / 16.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 4.0 | 6.1 / 4.0 | 63 / 76 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 11.2 / 10.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 6.1 / 7.0 | 63 / 61 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.0 / 10.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 5.2 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 73 / 62 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 10.5 / 12.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 3.0 | 54 / 38 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 10.3 / 7.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 5.2 / 3.0 | 55 / 31 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 9.6 / 4.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 0.0 | 52 / 20 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 9.2 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 50 / 40 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 8.6 / 5.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 3.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 55 / 32 |