AFL · OPENING ROUND · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 6:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 4
WB to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 5
HIT Actual margin 5 · 1.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 7.5 | - | - | 99% | 97% | 91% | 79% | 60% | 6.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | C | 6.6 | - | - | 98% | 92% | 81% | 63% | 42% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 5.3 | - | - | 90% | 76% | 57% | 36% | 18% | 0.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | INT | 4.8 | - | - | 84% | 67% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 4.6 | - | - | 81% | 63% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 4.5 | - | - | 78% | 60% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 2.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | FPL | 4.2 | - | - | 73% | 53% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 3.9 | - | - | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 67% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 3.7 | - | - | 65% | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | FB | 3.6 | - | - | 63% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 3.4 | - | - | 59% | 37% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | WL | 3.2 | - | - | 54% | 33% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 3.1 | - | - | 53% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.0 | - | - | 51% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 3.0 | - | - | 50% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Logan Morris | FF | 2.7 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 2.4 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 2.2 | - | - | 33% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harris Andrews | CHB | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 6.9 | - | - | 98% | 94% | 85% | 70% | 49% | 5.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 6.9 | - | - | 98% | 94% | 85% | 69% | 48% | 2.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 6.1 | - | - | 96% | 88% | 73% | 53% | 32% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 6.1 | - | - | 96% | 88% | 73% | 53% | 32% | 4.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 6.1 | - | - | 95% | 87% | 72% | 52% | 31% | 6.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 6.1 | - | - | 96% | 88% | 73% | 53% | 32% | 7.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFL | 5.9 | - | - | 94% | 86% | 70% | 49% | 28% | 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 54% | 33% | 16% | 3.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 5.0 | - | - | 87% | 71% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 3.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 4.8 | - | - | 84% | 67% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 4.7 | - | - | 83% | 66% | 45% | 25% | 11% | 1.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 4.2 | - | - | 74% | 55% | 33% | 17% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 4.2 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 4.1 | - | - | 72% | 52% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 3.9 | - | - | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 66% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 65% | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 3.6 | - | - | 63% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 63% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 3.5 | - | - | 60% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 3.4 | - | - | 58% | 36% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 3.3 | - | - | 56% | 35% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 3.0 |