AFL · OPENING ROUND · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 4
GWS to win, 55% chance
GWS 55%45% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 28.8 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 79% | 40% | 9% | 27.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 27.5 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 70% | 30% | 5% | 26.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 20.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 25.0 | - | - | 98% | 86% | 50% | 14% | 2% | 26.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 18.5 | - | - | 78% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 18.5 | - | - | 77% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 16.9 | - | - | 66% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 15.4 | - | - | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 15.1 | - | - | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.8 | - | - | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.1 | - | - | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 11.9 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPR | 11.5 | - | - | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 11.3 | - | - | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 11.3 | - | - | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 11.2 | - | - | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 11.1 | - | - | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 10.9 | - | - | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 10.9 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 10.7 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.7 | - | - | 99% | 89% | 56% | 18% | 2% | 25.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 21.0 | - | - | 90% | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 19.5 | - | - | 83% | 45% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Conor Nash | C | 19.2 | - | - | 82% | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 19.2 | - | - | 82% | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 18.4 | - | - | 77% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WR | 16.8 | - | - | 65% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 16.3 | - | - | 61% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | CHF | 15.9 | - | - | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPR | 15.9 | - | - | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 15.3 | - | - | 52% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 14.7 | - | - | 47% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 14.3 | - | - | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPL | 13.9 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Finn Maginness | HFFL | 13.9 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 13.9 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 12.3 | - | - | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 10.9 | - | - | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 10.1 | - | - | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 9.9 | - | - | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FPL | 8.9 | - | - | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |