AFL · OPENING ROUND · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 4
GWS to win, 55% chance
GWS 55%45% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 104 | - | - | 95% | 87% | 75% | 57% | 39% | 87 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 98 | - | - | 91% | 81% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 84 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 63% | 45% | 27% | 86 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 89 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 47% | 29% | 16% | 89 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 78 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 66 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 77 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 61 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 72 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 67 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 67 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 52 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 64 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 52 |
| Jake Stringer | FPR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 97 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 61 | - | - | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 95 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 94 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 58 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 60 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 57 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 63 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 57 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 46 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 57 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 36 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 37 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 68 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 90 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 13 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 83 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 87 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 44% | 26% | 13% | 89 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 81 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 77 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 81 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 70 |
| Conor Nash | C | 77 | - | - | 63% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 61 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 77 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 47 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 72 | - | - | 53% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 69 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPR | 71 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 67 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 43 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 68 | - | - | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 79 |
| Jarman Impey | WR | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 68 |
| Jack Ginnivan | CHF | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 82 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 62 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPL | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 46 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 64 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 56 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 49 |
| Josh Ward | R | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 73 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 22 |
| Finn Maginness | HFFL | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 25 |
| Mitch Lewis | FPL | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 67 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 72 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 50 |