AFL · OPENING ROUND · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 4
GWS to win, 55% chance
GWS 55%45% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 3.7 | - | - | 100% | 99% | 82% | 36% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPR | 1.5 | - | - | 73% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 1.3 | - | - | 64% | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.4 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.0 | - | - | 91% | 52% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 1.9 | - | - | 87% | 45% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 1.5 | - | - | 74% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FPL | 1.4 | - | - | 68% | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | CHF | 1.0 | - | - | 52% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 0.9 | - | - | 45% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPL | 0.7 | - | - | 37% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Finn Maginness | HFFL | 0.5 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.5 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 0.3 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.3 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 0.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Conor Nash | C | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |