AFL · OPENING ROUND · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GWS by 4
GWS to win, 55% chance
GWS 55%45% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 27
HIT Actual margin 27 · 23.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 6.8 | - | - | 98% | 94% | 84% | 67% | 46% | 4.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 6.7 | - | - | 98% | 93% | 82% | 64% | 43% | 5.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 6.1 | - | - | 96% | 88% | 73% | 53% | 32% | 4.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 5.9 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 68% | 47% | 27% | 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 5.9 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 68% | 47% | 27% | 3.0 |
| Josaia Delana | HFFR | 5.7 | - | - | 93% | 82% | 65% | 44% | 24% | 1.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | RR | 5.5 | - | - | 91% | 80% | 61% | 40% | 21% | 2.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 5.1 | - | - | 88% | 73% | 53% | 32% | 15% | 5.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPL | 4.9 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 82% | 65% | 43% | 24% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 4.6 | - | - | 81% | 63% | 42% | 22% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 4.4 | - | - | 78% | 59% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPR | 4.3 | - | - | 76% | 57% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 4.0 | - | - | 71% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 3.9 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 3.8 | - | - | 68% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 3.8 | - | - | 68% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 3.7 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 3.1 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 3.0 | - | - | 51% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | C | 7.5 | - | - | 99% | 97% | 91% | 79% | 60% | 3.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 6.5 | - | - | 97% | 91% | 78% | 60% | 38% | 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 5.3 | - | - | 90% | 76% | 57% | 36% | 18% | 3.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 5.2 | - | - | 89% | 75% | 55% | 34% | 17% | 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 4.8 | - | - | 84% | 67% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 81% | 63% | 42% | 22% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FPL | 4.6 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | CHF | 4.1 | - | - | 73% | 52% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Sam Butler | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Finn Maginness | HFFL | 3.9 | - | - | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.9 | - | - | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 3.9 | - | - | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 3.9 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 67% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WR | 3.7 | - | - | 65% | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPL | 3.4 | - | - | 59% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFR | 3.4 | - | - | 58% | 37% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 3.3 | - | - | 56% | 35% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPR | 3.3 | - | - | 57% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 3.3 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 3.3 | - | - | 56% | 35% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 3.0 | - | - | 49% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0.0 |