AFL · OPENING ROUND · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Fri 6 Mar 2026, 7:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 2
GEE to win, 52% chance
GCS 48%52% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 57.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.8 | - | - | 100% | 97% | 79% | 40% | 9% | 24.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 25.6 | - | - | 99% | 89% | 56% | 18% | 2% | 30.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 25.1 | - | - | 98% | 86% | 51% | 15% | 2% | 34.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 23.9 | - | - | 97% | 80% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 28.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | CHB | 20.6 | - | - | 89% | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 17.6 | - | - | 71% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 16.8 | - | - | 65% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 16.6 | - | - | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 16.6 | - | - | 63% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 15.8 | - | - | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFR | 15.7 | - | - | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 15.2 | - | - | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 13.1 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 12.7 | - | - | 31% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 11.6 | - | - | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 11.4 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 11.2 | - | - | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 10.3 | - | - | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 10.3 | - | - | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.8 | - | - | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 7.8 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | R | 28.4 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 77% | 37% | 8% | 23.0 |
| Max Holmes | C | 23.3 | - | - | 96% | 76% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 29.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 20.8 | - | - | 90% | 57% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 19.7 | - | - | 84% | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 31.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 19.5 | - | - | 83% | 45% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 19.5 | - | - | 83% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 18.8 | - | - | 79% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 18.7 | - | - | 79% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFR | 18.0 | - | - | 74% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 17.6 | - | - | 71% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 15.8 | - | - | 57% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 14.1 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Sam De Koning | FB | 13.7 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 12.8 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Mitch Knevitt | INT | 12.8 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 12.7 | - | - | 31% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 12.1 | - | - | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 12.0 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 11.8 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 11.6 | - | - | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 10.4 | - | - | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 8.4 | - | - | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |