AFL · OPENING ROUND · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Fri 6 Mar 2026, 7:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 2
GEE to win, 52% chance
GCS 48%52% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 57.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 99 | - | - | 91% | 81% | 66% | 47% | 29% | 100 |
| Touk Miller | R | 96 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 109 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 93 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | 121 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 93 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | 115 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 82 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 79 |
| Daniel Rioli | CHB | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 90 |
| Wil Powell | C | 71 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 69 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 86 |
| Ben Long | INT | 67 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 70 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 71 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 64 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 60 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 57 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 80 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 62 | - | - | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 78 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 58 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 42 |
| Ben King | FF | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 39 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 64 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 42 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 75 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 48 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 62 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 44 | - | - | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 44 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | R | 98 | - | - | 91% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 80 |
| Max Holmes | C | 90 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 108 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 82 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 102 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 82 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 75 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 79 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 52 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 78 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 98 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 75 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFR | 77 | - | - | 64% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 121 |
| James Worpel | INT | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 92 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 63 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 70 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 94 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 45 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 62 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 65 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 40 |
| Sam De Koning | FB | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 45 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 18 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 79 |
| Mitch Knevitt | INT | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 43 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 48 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 53 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 40 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 73 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 28 |