AFL · OPENING ROUND · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Fri 6 Mar 2026, 7:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 2
GEE to win, 52% chance
GCS 48%52% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 57.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Noble | HBFL | 5.2 | - | - | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 5.0 | - | - | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 2.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 4.7 | - | - | 62% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 8.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 4.6 | - | - | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 4.4 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.4 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 53% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 4.2 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | CHB | 3.8 | - | - | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 3.7 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 3.6 | - | - | 42% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFR | 3.4 | - | - | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 3.1 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 3.1 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 2.8 | - | - | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 2.3 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Henry | BPR | 6.3 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 38% | 22% | 4.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 6.0 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 2.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 5.8 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 5.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 5.0 | - | - | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | C | 4.7 | - | - | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 8.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFR | 4.6 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 10.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 4.5 | - | - | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Sam De Koning | FB | 4.5 | - | - | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 4.4 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 3.9 | - | - | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Bailey Smith | R | 3.8 | - | - | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.6 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 3.3 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 3.2 | - | - | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Mitch Knevitt | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 2.2 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |