AFL · OPENING ROUND · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Geelong Cats
Fri 6 Mar 2026, 7:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 2
GEE to win, 52% chance
GCS 48%52% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 56
MISS Actual margin 56 · 57.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Davies | INT | 7.2 | - | - | 99% | 96% | 89% | 75% | 55% | 8.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 6.2 | - | - | 96% | 88% | 74% | 54% | 33% | 1.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 6.0 | - | - | 95% | 87% | 72% | 51% | 30% | 6.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 5.9 | - | - | 94% | 84% | 68% | 47% | 27% | 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 5.6 | - | - | 92% | 81% | 63% | 42% | 23% | 4.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 5.6 | - | - | 92% | 81% | 63% | 42% | 23% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 5.4 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 58% | 37% | 19% | 3.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 5.0 | - | - | 86% | 71% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 4.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 4.9 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 4.5 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 40% | 21% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFR | 4.5 | - | - | 79% | 61% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 2.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | CHB | 4.3 | - | - | 75% | 56% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 5.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 4.2 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 4.0 | - | - | 70% | 50% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 3.9 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 66% | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 3.6 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 3.0 | - | - | 50% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 2.8 | - | - | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 2.8 | - | - | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 9.6 | - | - | 100% | 100% | 99% | 98% | 92% | 6.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 8.1 | - | - | 100% | 99% | 95% | 87% | 72% | 1.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 6.5 | - | - | 97% | 92% | 80% | 62% | 40% | 11.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 6.2 | - | - | 96% | 88% | 74% | 54% | 33% | 2.0 |
| Bailey Smith | R | 6.0 | - | - | 95% | 86% | 70% | 49% | 29% | 2.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFR | 5.4 | - | - | 91% | 78% | 60% | 38% | 20% | 4.0 |
| Max Holmes | C | 5.4 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 59% | 38% | 20% | 5.0 |
| Mitch Knevitt | INT | 5.0 | - | - | 86% | 71% | 50% | 30% | 14% | 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 4.9 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 6.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 4.8 | - | - | 84% | 67% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 4.7 | - | - | 82% | 64% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 83% | 66% | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 4.5 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 40% | 21% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 4.2 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 3.9 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | FPL | 3.9 | - | - | 68% | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.9 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 64% | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 3.7 | - | - | 65% | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 3.1 | - | - | 53% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 2.9 | - | - | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | FB | 2.9 | - | - | 49% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0.0 |