AFL · OPENING ROUND · MCG
St Kilda v Collingwood
Sun 8 Mar 2026, 7:20pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 10
COL to win, 62% chance
STK 38%62% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 2.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 26.1 / 19.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 5.7 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 99 / 73 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 25.7 / 14.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 5.9 / 6.0 | 96 / 53 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 25.1 / 35.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 6.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 96 / 122 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 22.0 / 28.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 7.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 93 / 100 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 19.5 / 29.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 11.0 | 4.5 / 1.0 | 75 / 116 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 18.8 / 24.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 76 / 89 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 18.1 / 17.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 6.0 / 6.0 | 70 / 79 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 17.8 / 26.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 7.4 / 12.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 79 / 104 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 17.7 / 20.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 6.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 86 / 84 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 17.4 / 6.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 1.0 | 91 / 28 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 16.8 / 13.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 6.5 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 84 / 48 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | HFFL | 16.7 / 18.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 4.9 / 4.0 | 71 / 66 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 15.3 / 21.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 5.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 62 / 75 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.2 / 19.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 5.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 72 / 77 |
| Hugh Boxshall | CHF | 13.5 / 7.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 6.0 | 54 / 46 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 12.8 / 12.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 65 / 62 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 12.5 / 9.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 65 / 35 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 11.2 / 10.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 3.0 | 2.9 / 1.0 | 56 / 33 |
| Max Hall | C | 11.1 / 17.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 51 / 74 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 11.0 / 16.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 8.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 53 / 78 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 10.3 / 10.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 4.8 / 4.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 62 / 65 |
| Jack Higgins | FPR | 9.7 / 11.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 55 / 48 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 9.4 / 6.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 46 / 20 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 28.8 / 41.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 7.0 | 4.0 / 2.0 | 98 / 136 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 26.0 / 36.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 13.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 96 / 141 |
| Steele Sidebottom | CHF | 22.9 / 15.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 4.1 / 1.0 | 90 / 49 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 21.8 / 26.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 8.0 | 4.4 / 4.0 | 82 / 101 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 20.5 / 28.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 11.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 86 / 120 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 19.5 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 12.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 78 / 98 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 18.9 / 26.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 9.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 76 / 97 |
| Ned Long | INT | 18.3 / 13.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 5.3 / 9.0 | 71 / 66 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 16.8 / 19.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 5.0 | 2.8 / 6.0 | 93 / 112 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 16.7 / 10.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 60 / 38 |
| Wil Parker | WL | 16.4 / 11.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 3.0 / 0.0 | 70 / 33 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 16.2 / 19.0 | 0.9 / 3.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 2.9 / 1.0 | 70 / 79 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 15.8 / 22.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 5.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 67 / 80 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 14.7 / 27.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 13.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 68 / 119 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 13.2 / 20.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 9.0 | 4.1 / 4.0 | 68 / 112 |
| Isaac Quaynor | FB | 12.3 / 23.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 11.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 54 / 95 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 11.8 / 11.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 47 / 53 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 10.9 / 16.0 | 0.6 / 2.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 53 / 68 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 10.9 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 6.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 62 / 53 |
| Tim Membrey | FPL | 10.4 / 8.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 62 / 31 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 9.6 / 6.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 4.4 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 63 / 32 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 9.2 / 19.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 13.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 45 / 79 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 8.9 / 6.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 54 / 24 |