St Kilda v Collingwood

Sun 8 Mar 2026, 7:20pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

COL by 10

COL to win, 62% chance

STK 38%62% COL

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

COL by 12

HIT Actual margin 12 · 2.1 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	26.1	-	-	99%	90%	59%	20%	3%	19.0
Jack Macrae	INT	25.7	-	-	99%	89%	56%	18%	2%	14.0
Jack Sinclair	R	25.1	-	-	98%	86%	51%	15%	2%	35.0
Sam Flanders	RR	22.0	-	-	93%	67%	26%	4%	0%	28.0
Marcus Windhager	WL	19.5	-	-	83%	45%	12%	1%	0%	29.0
Bradley Hill	CHB	18.8	-	-	80%	40%	9%	1%	0%	24.0
Hugo Garcia	INT	18.1	-	-	74%	34%	7%	0%	0%	17.0
Callum Wilkie	FB	17.8	-	-	72%	32%	6%	0%	0%	26.0
Tom De Koning	RK	17.7	-	-	72%	31%	6%	0%	0%	20.0
Rowan Marshall	FPL	17.4	-	-	70%	29%	5%	0%	0%	6.0
Mason Wood	INT	16.8	-	-	65%	24%	4%	0%	0%	13.0
Mattaes Phillipou	HFFL	16.7	-	-	64%	24%	4%	0%	0%	18.0
Darcy Wilson	WR	15.3	-	-	53%	16%	2%	0%	0%	21.0
Jack Silvagni	BPL	14.2	-	-	43%	11%	1%	0%	0%	19.0
Hugh Boxshall	CHF	13.5	-	-	38%	8%	1%	0%	0%	7.0
Mitch Owens	HFFR	12.8	-	-	32%	6%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Liam Ryan	INT	12.5	-	-	30%	5%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Anthony Caminiti	BPR	11.2	-	-	21%	3%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Max Hall	C	11.1	-	-	20%	3%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Jack Carroll	INT	11.0	-	-	20%	3%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Cooper Sharman	FF	10.3	-	-	16%	2%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Jack Higgins	FPR	9.7	-	-	13%	1%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Alix Tauru	HBFL	9.4	-	-	12%	1%	0%	0%	0%	6.0

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Nick Daicos	C	28.8	-	-	100%	97%	80%	40%	9%	41.0
Josh Daicos	CHB	26.0	-	-	99%	90%	59%	20%	3%	36.0
Steele Sidebottom	CHF	22.9	-	-	96%	74%	33%	6%	0%	15.0
Scott Pendlebury	INT	21.8	-	-	93%	65%	25%	4%	0%	26.0
Dan Houston	HBFL	20.5	-	-	88%	54%	17%	2%	0%	28.0
Patrick Lipinski	INT	19.5	-	-	83%	46%	12%	1%	0%	21.0
Jack Crisp	RR	18.9	-	-	80%	40%	9%	1%	0%	26.0
Ned Long	INT	18.3	-	-	76%	36%	8%	1%	0%	13.0
Darcy Cameron	RK	16.8	-	-	65%	25%	4%	0%	0%	19.0
Edward Allan	INT	16.7	-	-	64%	24%	4%	0%	0%	10.0
Wil Parker	WL	16.4	-	-	61%	22%	3%	0%	0%	11.0
Jordan De Goey	R	16.2	-	-	60%	20%	3%	0%	0%	19.0
Harry Perryman	HBFR	15.8	-	-	57%	19%	2%	0%	0%	22.0
Brayden Maynard	BPR	14.7	-	-	47%	13%	1%	0%	0%	27.0
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	13.2	-	-	35%	7%	1%	0%	0%	20.0
Isaac Quaynor	FB	12.3	-	-	28%	5%	0%	0%	0%	23.0
Roan Steele	WR	11.8	-	-	25%	4%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Beau McCreery	HFFR	10.9	-	-	19%	2%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Jamie Elliott	FF	10.9	-	-	19%	3%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Tim Membrey	FPL	10.4	-	-	16%	2%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Daniel McStay	FPR	9.6	-	-	12%	1%	0%	0%	0%	6.0
Billy Frampton	BPL	9.2	-	-	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	19.0
Jack Buller	INT	8.9	-	-	10%	1%	0%	0%	0%	6.0